Used car values 2025
Forecasting the future ‘residual value’ of cars has become a challenge for lenders and leasing companies over recent years as the marketplace shifts from internal combustion engine (ICE) cars to electric vehicles (EVs) at pace.
The trend for all fuel types has been one of declining residual values. Lower forecasted residual values, reflecting market trends, have resulted in rising monthly payments for PCP and leasing contracts. While the market dynamics are not yet stable, which requires greater consumer interest in EVs, some encouraging signs are emerging.
The latest trend data published by Autotrader for November revealed that the average price of a used petrol car was down 4.7% to £14,710, diesel cars were down 5.8% to £14,077, and electric vehicles were 11.7% lower at £26,390. The typical plug-in hybrid lost 10.5% year on year to £30,598.
Values are still falling, especially for EVs, but understanding the numbers in more detail is vital to seeing the broader picture.
The car parc for ICE cars is far more extensive than for EVs and has a broader age and price range, and consumer purchasing has trended towards older, cheaper cars in recent years. This is evidenced in the average prices. At least in part, EV and hybrid values are falling more sharply than ICE cars because the EV/hybrid parc is newer and more expensive – they have further to fall.
Falling values typically reflect supply exceeding demand, but this does not appear to be quite accurate on this occasion. In November, used cars sold two days quicker than in 2023, taking 31 days to leave forecourts. EVs sold even more quickly, at 28 days, with three-to-five-year-old EVs selling within 22 days on average.
The November demand numbers may indicate increased consumers’ confidence to switch to an EV. If this trend can be sustained, the imbalance between EVs and ICE cars will improve and used car values will establish greater consistency. Another factor that may benefit EVs is that the available parc of cars will be broader, including an increasing number of older, cheaper options.
The potential for this scenario is emerging. Autotrader’s latest used car forecast suggests the used car market will sustain the strong growth momentum seen over the last two years, rising from an estimated 7.61m sales in 2024 to around 7.70m in 2025.
One final observation: the increase in new EV sales has seen new diesel car sales collapse to under 6% of the market. This means there could be a shortage of new -3 diesel cars for people who want to buy such a car. This ‘final hurrah’ for newer used diesel cars could see their used car values increase.
References
· https://www.autotraderinsight-blog.co.uk/auto-trader-insight-blog/used-car-prices-update
